Plombés par le poids de la dette

LONDRES - Presque quatre ans après le début de la crise financière mondiale, beaucoup se demandent pourquoi la reprise économique prend autant de temps. En effet, sa lenteur a confondu même les experts.& Selon le Fonds Monétaire International, l'économie mondiale devrait s'être développée de 4,4% en 2011, et devrait se développer de 4,5% en 2012. En fait, les derniers chiffres de la Banque mondiale indiquent que la croissance a tout juste atteint 2,7% en 2011 et ralentira cette année à 2,5% - un chiffre qu'il faudra peut-être revoir à la baisse.

Il y a deux raisons possibles à l'écart entre les prévisions et les résultats. Soit les dommages provoqués par la crise financière étaient plus sérieux qu'on ne s'en est d'abord rendu compte, soit le traitement économique prescrit a été moins efficace que l'ont cru les décisionnaires.

En fait, on a rapidement compris la gravité de la crise bancaire. Des mesures de stimulation énormes ont été mises en application en 2008-09, menées par les États-Unis et la Chine, coordonnées par la Grande-Bretagne, avec l'appui réticent de l'Allemagne. Il y a eu des réductions des taux d'intérêt, des sauvetages des banques insolvables, une remise en service des planches à billets, des réductions d'impôts et des augmentations des dépenses publiques. Quelques pays ont dévalué leur devise.

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