Paul Lachine

L'Afrique, les économies de croissance et le reste du monde

LONDRES – J'ai forgé il y a 9 ans l'acronyme BRIC pour désigner les puissances économiques montantes que sont le Brésil, la Russie, l'Inde et la Chine. Plus de 7 ans se sont écoulés depuis que mes collègues de Goldman Sachs et moi-même avons publié une étude prospective qui s'étendait jusqu'à 2050, dans laquelle nous suggérions que les économies de ces pays pourraient dépasser celles du G7 et constituer avec les USA les 5 premières économies mondiales. Il y a plus de 5 ans nous avons aussi créé l'expression "Les 11 suivants" ou N11 pour désigner les 11 pays suivants parmi les plus peuplés susceptibles de rejoindre le BRIC.

A eux tous, ces 15 pays sont le moteur de l'économie mondiale. La Chine a dépassé le Japon et constitue maintenant la deuxième économie mondiale ; sa production atteint celle de l'ensemble des trois autres pays du BRIC. Leur PIB agrégé se chiffre à 11000 milliards de dollars, soit 80% du PIB américain.

La demande intérieure du BRIC est encore plus impressionnante. Le pouvoir d'achat annuel de l'ensemble des consommateurs de cette zone est compris entre 4000 et 4500 milliards de dollars. Celui des consommateurs américains s'élève à plus du double (environ 1050 milliards de dollars), mais celui des consommateurs de la zone BRIC croit de 15% par an, soit 600 milliards par an. Si ce rythme se maintient, cette hausse atteindra 1000 milliards de dollars par an vers 2015, et à la fin de la décennie, le pouvoir d'achat des habitants du BRIC dépassera celui des Américains.

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