Paul Lachine

لتسقط "الأسواق الناشئة"

لندن ـ لقد مرت تسع سنوات منذ استحدثت مصطلح (BRIC)، والذي أصبح مترادفاً مع صعود البرازيل وروسيا والهند والصين. ومرت سبع أعوام منذ نشرت أنا وزملائي في جولدمان ساكس لأول مرة توقعاتنا لعام 2050 حيث اقترحنا أن الاقتصاد في هذه البلدان الأربعة قد يصبح أضخم من اقتصاد مجموعة الدول السبع الكبار، وأنها إلى جانب الولايات المتحدة سوف تصبح البلدان الخمسة صاحبة أضخم اقتصاد على مستوى العالم.

كما مرت أكثر من خمس سنوات منذ ظهور تعبير "الأحد عشر القادمون" لأول مرة. ويضم هذا المصطلح البلدان الأحد عشر صاحبة أضخم تعداد سكاني على مستوى العالم.

وتدفع هذه البلدان الأحد عشر إلى جانب البلدان الأربعة أغلب الزخم الإيجابي وراء الاقتصاد العالمي اليوم. فقد تجاوزت الصين اليابان باعتبارها صاحبة ثاني أضخم اقتصاد على مستوى العالم، حيث أصبح ناتجها يعادل تقريباً نظيره لدى بقية بلدان المجموعة الأربعة الأخرى (البرازيل وروسيا والهند) مجتمعة. ولقد بلغ مجموع ناتج هذه البلدان المحلي الإجمالي 11 تريلون دولار أميركي تقريبا، أو نحو 80% من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الأميركي.

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