Die Bedrohung durch den Double-Dip

NEW YORK – Die seit der Rezession der Jahre 2008 und 2009 durch massive Konjunkturprogramme, eine Lockerung der Geldpolitik und diverse Rettungsaktionen künstlich angekurbelte Weltwirtschaft steht vor einem drastischen Abschwung noch in diesem Jahr, da die Wirkung der erwähnten Maßnahmen nachlässt. Noch schlimmer ist, dass man die der Krise zugrunde liegenden Exzesse nicht behoben hat – zu hohe Schulden und Fremdkapitalisierung auf dem privaten Sektor (Haushalte, Banken, andere Finanzinstitutionen und sogar in weiten Teilen des Unternehmenssektors).

Die Entschuldung des privaten Sektors hat noch nicht einmal richtig begonnen. Im öffentlichen Sektor entwickelter Ökonomien kommt es momentan überdies zu einer massiven erneuten Verschuldung. Dies schlägt sich in enormen Haushaltsdefiziten und Staatsschulden nieder, die von automatischen Stabilisatoren, antizyklischen keynesianischen Konjunkturprogrammen und den immensen Kosten der Sozialisierung von Verlusten im Finanzsystem in die Höhe getrieben werden.   

Bestenfalls stehen wir in den entwickelten Volkswirtschaften vor einer langen Phase anämischen Wachstums unter Trend, da sich die Entschuldung der Haushalte, Finanzinstitutionen und Staaten auf Konsum und Investitionen auszuwirken beginnt. Auf globaler Ebene müssen Länder, die zu viel ausgeben – USA, Großbritannien, Spanien, Griechenland und andere – nun ihre Schulden abbauen und verringern daher Ausgaben, Konsum und Importe.  

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