Dans le creux de la reprise

NEW YORK – L’économie mondiale, maintenue artificiellement depuis la récession de 2008-2009 à grands renforts de rachats financiers et de mesures fiscales et monétaires, est cette année vouée à un fort  ralentissement tandis que l’effet de ces mesures s’estompe. Pis encore, les principaux excès qui ont contribué à la crise – trop de dettes et trop d’effet de levier dans le secteur privé (foyers, banques et autres institutions financières, voire davantage encore du côté des entreprises) – n’ont pas été traités.

La réduction de l’effet de levier dans le secteur privé n’a pas encore commencé. En outre, le secteur public des économies avancées est aujourd’hui soumis à un nouvel effet de levier à cause de l’accumulation d’énormes déficits budgétaires et de dettes publiques dus à la stabilisation automatique, la relance fiscale anti-cyclique keynesienne et ce qu’il en a coûté de socialiser les pertes du système financier.

Au mieux, nous nous dirigeons vers une période de croissance anémique prolongée inférieure à la moyenne dans les pays avancés cependant que l’effet de levier inversé dans les foyers, les institutions financières et les gouvernements commence à peine à se répercuter sur la consommation et l’investissement. A l’échelle mondiale, les pays trop dépensiers (Etats-Unis, Royaume-Uni, Espagne et Grèce entre autres) ont aujourd’hui besoin de ralentir leur rythme. Ils dépensent, consomment et importent moins.

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