Судный день для доллара?

Дефицит Соединённых Штатов по текущим расчётам достиг величины в 5,7% ВНП во втором квартале 2004 года. Тем не менее курс доллара остаётся относительно высоким: менее чем на 20% ниже рекордно высокой отметки, достигнутой в начале 2001 года, и более чем на 10% выше в реальном исчислении, чем в начале-середине 90-х годов.

По мере того как дефицит США по текущим расчётам возрастал на протяжении последнего пятилетия, специалисты по международной экономике один за другим предсказывали неизбежное: доходы по ценным бумагам, инвестированным в США, относительно низки, поэтому в какой-то момент - вероятно, одновременно - владельцы ценных бумаг, деноминированных в долларах, поймут, что не получают адекватной компенсации за риск потери вследствие резкого падения курса. Как только инвесторы-владельцы портфолио начнут продавать свои "долларовые" ценные бумаги, начнётся обвал, который приведёт к резкому падению курса доллара и началу первого крупного глобального финансового кризиса двадцать первого столетия.

Фред Бергстен из Института международной экономики называет эту ситуацию "развивающимся бедствием". Насколько сильно должен будет упасть доллар? Первое историческое эмпирическое правило гласит: 10% курса доллара на каждый процент неустойчивого дефицита по текущим расчётам в пересчёте на ВНП. Второе историческое эмпирическое правило заключается в том, что при падении курс валюты имеет тенденцию к занижению: вблизи минимума международные валютные спекулянты требуют существенного вознаграждения за риск, опасаясь, что внезапное падение курса может привести к чему-либо ещё худшему.

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