Soudný den pro dolar?

Deficit běžného účtu Spojených států dosáhl ve druhém čtvrtletí letošního roku 5,7% HDP. Přesto má dolar i nadále relativně vysokou hodnotu: nachází se o méně než 20% pod svým maximem z počátku roku 2001 a v reálných číslech o více než 10% nad úrovní z první poloviny devadesátých let.

Jak americký deficit běžného účtu v posledních pěti letech narůstal, předháněli se mezinárodní ekonomové v předpovědích zkázy: návratnost aktiv investovaných v USA je relativně nízká, takže držitelé cenných papírů denominovaných v dolarech si v určitém okamžiku - pravděpodobně všichni najednou - uvědomí, že riziko velkého poklesu hodnoty není dostatečně kompenzováno. Jakmile začnou portfolioví investoři prodávat cenné papíry denominované v dolarech, nastane hromadný úprk, který způsobí pád hodnoty dolaru a nastartování první velké celosvětové finanční krize v jednadvacátém století.

Podle Freda Bergstena z Institutu pro mezinárodní ekonomii je v této situaci „zaděláno na katastrofu". Jak hluboko bude muset dolar padnout? První historické vodítko předpokládá 10% z hodnoty dolaru za každé procento HDP ve formě neudržitelného deficitu běžného účtu. Podle druhého historického vodítka mají měny s klesající hodnotou tendenci „přestřelovat": blízko u dna požadují mezinárodní měnoví spekulanti značnou rizikovou prémii z obavy, že krach měny by mohl odstartovat ještě něco horšího.

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