Russian tanks in Ukraine Pierre Crom | getty images

إحياء اتفاق مينسك

موسكو ــ ربما ينطوي مستقبل إقليم دونباس في شرق أوكرانيا على احتمالين. وقد نشهد أحدهما ضمن إطار عملية مينسك للسلام، والتي تتألف من سلسلة من الاتفاقات المجمعة معاً لنزع فتيل المواجهة بين روسيا وأوكرانيا. أو ربما تتحول المنطقة إلى موقع لصراع مجمد من ذلك النوع الذي قد نجده في جمهوريات ما بعد الاتحاد السوفييتي، حيث تؤكد المناوشات الدائرة على مستوى منخفض على الخطر الدائم المتمثل في احتمال إراقة الدماء على نطاق أوسع وأشد خطورة.

في اللحظة الحالية، وصلت العملية إلى طريق مسدود. ومن المرجح أن تتصاعد وتيرة توجيه أصابع الاتهام من قِبَل الجانبين، في حين يناقش الاتحاد الأوروبي والولايات المتحدة ما إذا كان من الواجب إطالة أمد العقوبات المفروضة على روسيا. وسوف يتطلب دفع العملية إلى الأمام سلوك نهج أشد حزماً من قِبَل الغرب.

الواقع أن البت بشأن رفع العقوبات أو الاستمرار في فرضها ليس بالقرار الصعب. ذلك أن شروط رفعها كانت تتمثل دوماً في "التنفيذ الكامل" لاتفاق مينسك. وليس هناك من الدلائل ما قد يشير إلى احتمال إنجاز هذا الأمر بحلول الصيف، عندما يحين موعد انتهاء العمل بالجولة الحالية من العقوبات.

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