莫学美联储

美联储面临着两难的困境,因为它需要在美国经济遭到飓风摧残的时候继续提高利率。欧洲央行也需要借鉴美联储未能尽早提息的教训:在漫长的低利率货币稳定期过后,迟迟不把利率提高到更为正常和恰当的水平很可能带来危险的后果。

美联储迟迟不肯开始利率正常化的过程,现在它要为此付出代价。即便与美联储有着不同的经营环境和限制条件,欧洲央行也绝不能犯同样的错误。

欧元区内,到处可以看到通货膨胀即将开始的警示迹象。一段时间以来,货币供应的增长远远超过了目标水准,这是流动能力过强的信号。9月份的通胀指数超过了欧洲央行2%的目标,达到了2.6%¾对2006年通胀的最新预测也是如此(12月初将公布最新的预测结果)。“薪金稳定期可能正在接近尾声,”欧洲央行首席经济学家易辛发出警告,暗示着飞速上涨的能源价格可能正在向整个价格体系内部渗透(这就是所谓的“次轮效应”)。

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