No Apuesten a una Rápida Recuperación de EEUU

¿Hacia dónde va la economía de Estados Unidos? Todas las buenas noticias que sugieren que la recesión de Estados Unidos (EEUU) está cerca de terminar son seguidas por noticias que sugieren otra cosa. La política monetaria actual de la Junta de la Reserva Federal refleja esa ambigüedad: no está ni bajando ni subiendo las tasas de interés. En cambio, mantiene una postura "neutral". Los laberintos del mercado de valores son una señal similar de incertidumbre.

Gran parte de la discusión acerca de la economía de EEUU es de poca ayuda, pues se enfoca en la pregunta equivocada: ¿cuándo empezó y terminó la recesión? Las recesiones son típicamente definidas de acuerdo a si el PIB ha caído . Pero lo que es de preocuparse es la brecha entre el potencial de la economía y su desempeño real.

En esos términos, lo más probable es que el desempeño de la economía estadounidense permanezca lúgubre. Los incrementos de la productividad medida significan que la tasa de crecimiento potencial de la economía se encuentra ahora en algún punto entre 3.5% y 4% anual. (Ha habido cambios en la forma en la que corregimos los cambios de precio, así que eso que medimos ahora como 4% representa de hecho lo que solíamos medir como una cifra sustancialmente más pequeña.)

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