A Segunda Ronda do Debate sobre a Contenção

PARIS – No início da Guerra Fria, houve intensos debates nos Estados Unidos entre aqueles que queriam conter o comunismo e os que queriam revertê-lo. Era suficiente impor limites às ambições da União Soviética, ou seria necessária uma postura mais agressiva, por vezes descrita como “contenção adicional”?

A recente discussão entre o Presidente dos EUA, Barack Obama, e a sua antiga secretária de estado (e possível sucessora), Hillary Clinton, parece ter revivido esse debate. Mas serão os seus termos de referência úteis hoje, quando o Ocidente enfrenta os desafios simultâneos do Estado Islâmico no Médio Oriente e de uma Rússia revisionista? Terão os líderes Ocidentais razão em assumir que os dois desafios são distintos, e que a contenção será suficiente no caso da Rússia, sendo a reversão absolutamente necessária no caso do Estado Islâmico?

O que se pensa, é que o Ocidente precisa da Rússia tanto quanto a Rússia precisa do Ocidente, enquanto ninguém (para dizer o mínimo) precisa de um santuário para fanáticos Islâmicos no coração do Médio Oriente. É por isso que a Rússia deve ser persuadida a alterar a sua rota através de uma combinação de sanções económicas, unidade estratégica, e compromisso diplomático; pelo contrário, as ambições do Estado Islâmico não podem ser contidas, e devem portanto ser suprimidas.

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