Le débat sur l'endiguement, deuxième épisode

PARIS – Au début de la Guerre froide, il y a eu aux USA un débat animé entre ceux qui voulaient contenir le communisme et ceux qui voulaient lui livrer bataille. Fallait-il simplement fixer une limite aux ambitions de l'Union soviétique ou valait-il mieux adopter une posture plus agressive, appelée parfois "endiguement plus" ?

La récente querelle entre le président Obama et son ancienne secrétaire d'Etat (qui pourrait lui succéder), Hillary Clinton, a relancé ce sujet. Mais les références auxquelles ce débat fait appel sont-elles pertinentes aujourd'hui, alors que l'Occident est confronté simultanément au problème de l'Etat islamique au Moyen-Orient et à celui d'une Russie révisionniste ? Les dirigeants occidentaux ont-ils raison de considérer ces deux problèmes comme distincts et de penser que l'endiguement suffira dans le cas de la Russie, mais qu'il faut absolument défaire l'Etat islamique ?

Le raisonnement se poursuit en disant que l'Occident a tout autant besoin de la Russie que cette dernière a besoin de l'Occident, tandis que personne (pour le moins que l'on puisse dire) ne souhaite que les fanatiques islamistes disposent d'un sanctuaire au cœur du Moyen-Orient. C'est pourquoi, avec une combinaison de sanctions économiques, d'unité stratégique et d'engagement diplomatique, il faut persuader la Russie de changer de politique. Par contre, comme il est impossible de contenir les ambitions de l'Etat islamique, il faut en faire table rase.

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