Soldiers in WWI Boston Public Library

O regresso dos sonâmbulos

PARIS – No dia 28 de Junho de 1914, o arquiduque Franz Ferdinand, herdeiro do trono austro-húngaro e a sua esposa, Sophie, duquesa de Hohenberg, foram assassinados em Sarajevo – provocando uma série de más decisões que culminou na Primeira Guerra Mundial. Um século depois, o mundo é novamente apanhado na turbulência do conflito e da incerteza, exemplificados no Médio Oriente, na Ucrânia, no Mar Oriental e no Mar do Sul da China. Poderá uma compreensão dos erros cometidos em 1914 ajudar o mundo a evitar outra grande catástrofe?

Efectivamente, a ordem global mudou drasticamente ao longo dos últimos cem anos. Mas o sentimento crescente de que perdemos o controlo da história, juntamente com sérias dúvidas sobre as capacidades e os princípios dos nossos líderes, concede uma certa relevância aos eventos de Sarajevo, em 1914.

Apenas há um ano, qualquer comparação entre o Verão de 1914 e hoje teria parecido artificial. O único paralelo que poderia ser traçado limitava-se à Ásia: os analistas questionavam se a China estaria a tornar-se gradualmente no equivalente moderno da Alemanha sob o domínio de Kaiser Wilhelm II, com crescentes tensões regionais sobre as reivindicações territoriais da China, assemelhando-se, em certa medida, à situação nos Balcãs, na véspera da Primeira Guerra Mundial.

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