Soldiers in WWI Boston Public Library

Die Rückkehr der Schlafwandler

PARIS – Am 28. Juni 1914 wurden Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand, Thronfolger von Österreich-Ungarn, und seine Frau Sophie Herzogin von Hohenberg in Sarajevo ermordet – was eine Reihe von Fehlentscheidungen auslöste, die im Ersten Weltkrieg gipfelten. Ein Jahrhundert später wird die Welt wieder von Konflikten und Unsicherheit getrübt, wie im Nahen Osten, der Ukraine und dem Ost- und Südchinesischen Meer. Kann das Verstehen der Fehler, die 1914 begangen wurden, der Welt dabei helfen, eine weitere große Katastrophe zu vermeiden?

Sicher hat sich die Weltordnung im Laufe der letzten einhundert Jahre dramatisch verändert. Doch das stärker werdende Gefühl, dass wir die Kontrolle über die Geschichte verloren haben, und schwerwiegende Zweifel an den Fähigkeiten und Prinzipien unserer Politiker verleihen den Ereignissen in Sarajevo 1914 eine gewisse Relevanz.

Noch vor einem Jahr hätte jeder Vergleich zwischen dem Sommer 1914 und heute künstlich gewirkt. Die einzige Parallele, die gezogen werden konnte, war auf Asien begrenzt: Experten fragten sich, ob China allmählich zum modernen Pendant Deutschlands unter Kaiser Wilhelm II. wurde, mit zunehmenden regionalen Spannungen in Bezug auf Chinas Territorialansprüche, die in gewissem Maße der Lage auf dem Balkan am Vorabend des Ersten Weltkriegs ähnelten.

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