Soldiers in WWI Boston Public Library

Le retour des somnambules

PARIS – Le 28 juin 1914, l’archiduc Franz Ferdinand, le prince héritier de l’empire austro-hongrois et son épouse Sophie, la duchesse de Hohenberg ont été assassinés à Sarajevo – déclenchant une succession de funestes décisions qui a culminé dans la Première Guerre mondiale. Un siècle plus tard, le monde baigne toujours dans les conflits et les incertitudes, comme le démontre la situation au Proche-Orient, en Ukraine ainsi que dans les mers du Sud et de l’Est de la Chine. La connaissance des erreurs passées permettra-t-elle d’éviter une autre catastrophe planétaire ?

Il est certain que l’ordre mondial a radicalement changé au cours des cinq dernières années. Mais le sentiment de plus en plus répandu que nous avons perdu la maîtrise sur le cours de l’histoire, accompagné de sérieux doutes envers les capacités et les principes de nos dirigeants, donne une certaine résonance aux événements de Sarajevo de 1914.

Il y a à peine un an, une comparaison entre la situation de l’été 1914 et celle d’aujourd’hui aurait semblé artificielle. Le seul parallèle que l’on pouvait faire se limitait à l’Asie : les experts se perdaient en conjectures sur l’équivalence de la Chine moderne avec l’Allemagne sous le kaiser Guillaume II, car la hausse des tensions régionales produite par les revendications territoriales de la Chine ressemblait, dans une certaine mesure, à la situation des Balkans à la veille de la Première Guerre mondiale.

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