Soldiers in WWI Boston Public Library

梦游者归来

巴黎—1914年6月28日,奥匈帝国皇储斐迪南大公及其妻子霍恩伯格女公爵苏菲在萨拉热窝遇刺,此后的一系列糟糕决策最终演变成第一次世界大战。一个世纪后,世界再一次面临着冲突和不确定性肆虐,中东、乌克兰以及中国的东海和南海莫不如是。对1914年失误的认识能否帮助世界避免又一场大崩盘?

平心而论,在过去一百年里,世界秩序有了重大变化。但越来越多的人感到我们正在失去对历史的控制,对于我们的领导人的能力和原则也存在深刻的质疑,这些都让1914年萨拉热窝事件有了一些现实意义。

短短一年签,任何将1914年夏天与现在所做的对比都被认为是杞人忧天。只有亚洲略有一些相似之处:专家们搞不懂中国是不是正在演变为昔日威廉二世治下的德国,围绕中国的领土主张的地区紧张局势或多或少类似于一战前夕的巴尔干地区。

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