俄罗斯和中国的不现实政治

巴黎—玛格丽特·麦克米兰(Margaret Macmillan)在其探讨一战起源的新书《结束和平的战争》(The War That Ended Peace)中指出,唯一可以确定的因素是领导力很重要。没人真的愿意打仗,但没人知道如何反对打仗,因为像德国的俾斯麦这样的伟大政治家(他的克制让欧洲得到了几十年的和平)也会在1914年的欧洲败下阵来。如今,俄罗斯和中国的行为表明我们面临着类似的领导力空缺。

在走向一战的过程中,政治和军事领导人没能意识到工业生产和大规模运输已经改变了战争的性质。美国内战本应成为对欧洲的警告。但欧洲仍把自己当作世界中心,以“传播文明”为名将对手送往非洲和亚洲,而完全没有注意到新世界的惨痛教训。

如今,不管是俄罗斯总统普京还是中国国家主席习近平,也都没有吸取这些教训。在乌克兰,俄罗斯必须选择与欧洲建设怎样的关系。如果乌克兰回到克里姆林宫的怀抱——不管是通过重新统一还是某种形式的“芬兰化”——俄罗斯就将重新开启一个古老的欧洲问题:与1643—1815年间的法国和魏玛德国一样,对于邻国而言,它将变得“太甚”,而对于自己的雄心而言,它又“不够”。

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