Dólares y depresión

La caída del dólar se está convirtiendo en una fuente de profundo malestar macroeconómico a nivel global. Ahora la pregunta es qué tan grave será ese malestar. ¿Está en peligro la economía mundial?

Hay dos posibilidades. Si los ahorradores e inversionistas del mundo esperan que la depreciación del dólar continúe, huirán de la divisa a menos que se les compense de manera adecuada por conservar el dinero en Estados Unidos y sus activos, lo que implica que la brecha entre las tasas de interés estadounidenses y las extranjeras se ampliará. Como resultado, el costo del capital en Estados Unidos se disparará, desalentando la inversión y reduciendo el gasto de consumo a medida que las altas tasas de interés depriman el valor del principal activo de los hogares: sus casas.

La recesión resultante podría alimentar más pesimismo y recortes en el gasto, con lo que se profundizaría el declive. Si Estados Unidos cae en una recesión ya no podría funcionar como el importador de último recurso para el mundo, lo que podría enviar al resto del planeta a una recesión también. Un mundo en el que todos esperan que el dólar caiga es un mundo en crisis económica.

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