Dolary a deprese

Z padajícího dolaru se vyklubal zdroj hlubokých globálních makroekonomických nesnází. Otázka nyní zní, jak zlé tyto nesnáze budou. Je světová ekonomika v ohrožení?

Existují dvě možnosti. Budou-li globální střadatelé a investoři očekávat pokračující znehodnocování dolaru, pak od této měny uprchnou, pokud nedostanou náležitou kompenzaci, aby měli důvod ponechat své peníze v USA a jejich aktivech – z čehož vyplývá, že propast mezi americkými a zahraničními úrokovými sazbami se bude rozšiřovat. V důsledku toho se prudce zvýší kapitálové náklady v USA, což odradí investice a sníží výdaje na spotřebu, neboť vysoké úrokové sazby stlačují hodnotu hlavního aktiva domácností: jejich domů.

Výsledná recese by mohla vyvolat další pesimismus a výdajové škrty, což by pokles ještě prohloubilo. USA stižené recesí by už nefungovaly jako světový dovozce poslední záchrany, a to by mohlo uvrhnout do recese také zbytek světa. Svět, v němž všichni očekávají pokles dolaru, je světem v hospodářské krizi.

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