美元和经济萧条

一路下跌的美元已经成了导致全球性大规模宏观经济萧条的源泉。现在的问题是此次经济萧条究竟会糟糕到何种地步。世界经济是不是正面临着危险?

目前存在着两种可能性。如果全球储户和投资者预期美元将会继续贬值,那么除非把钱存在美国及美元资产中能得到适当的补偿,这就意味着美国和外国的利息差距将会拉大,否则他们将会抛售手中持有的美元资产。其结果是,美国的资本成本会大幅度提高,利率居高不下会导致家庭的主要资产——住宅价值缩水,从而打击投资者的积极性,降低消费支出。

由此产生的经济衰退也许会导致悲观情绪进一步蔓延、消费开支进一步缩减,从而加剧美元的贬值趋势。身处经济萧条之中的美国不可能再扮演世界最后一个进口商的角色,而这可能会使世界其他国家也陷入衰退的泥潭。人人认为美元即将贬值的世界将是一个陷入经济危机的世界。

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