Comments 6

هل تتسبب قوة الدولار في إشعال شرارة التدخل في عام 2017؟

Dec 30, 2016 Carmen M. Reinhart

كمبريدج ــ من المعروف أن مجموعة صغيرة فقط من البنوك المركزية تمتنع عن التدخل في سوق صرف العملات الأجنبية لتثبيت استقرار أسعار صرف عملاتها أو توجيهها في الاتجاه المرغوب. وحتى عندما لا تتدخل بشكل مباشر، فإنها كثيرا ما تصوغ سياسات أسعار الفائدة بحيث تكون متوافقة مع أهداف سعر الصرف. ونتيجة لهذا، فإن العملات المعَوَّمة بحرية نادرة نسبيا. وهذا يخلف عواقب مهمة على الجهود التي تبذلها السلطات في الولايات المتحدة في مواجهة الارتفاع الحاد في سعر صرف الدولار.

عندما تهدد خسارة محتملة أو فعلية للثقة في العُملة بالتسبب في تدفقات كبيرة من رأس المال إلى الخارج، يأتي التدخل عادة في هيئة مبيعات من احتياطيات النقد الأجنبي لتخفيف حجم أو سرعة انخفاض القيمة. وتُعَد خسائر الاحتياطي الجارية التي يتكبدها بنك الشعب الصيني مثالا بارزا حديثا على هذا. ويرجع آخر تدخل أميركي في أسواق صرف العملات الأجنبية لدعم الدولار الضعيف (كانت تدخلاته من هذا القبيل نادرة في عموم الأمر) إلى الفترة 1992-1995.

على الطرف الآخر من الطيف، ربما تكون المخاوف بشأن انخفاض القدرة التنافسية الدولية نتيجة لارتفاع كبير في قيمة العملة أكثر شيوعا بين صناع السياسات والشركات الموجهة للتصدير. وقد تخللت المخاوف بشأن العملات المبالَغ في تقييمها المناقشات السياسية في العديد من الأسواق الناشئة منذ عام 2013، كما أسفرت الجهود المتواصلة في التصدي لارتفاع قيمة العملة عن تراكم كم غير مسبوق من الاحتياطيات لدى العديد من البنوك المركزية.

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B Wilds Jan 5, 2017

The definition of relativity is based solidly on the relationships or values determined by the laws of nature. Often we find the qualities of relativity extend to other parts of our lives and the universe as well such as the markets and economics.

It is impossible to deny the unrestrained growth of intangible assets over the last few decades. The article below warns of how a failure of faith in these intangible "promises" could cause wealth to suddenly shift into tangible goods seeking a safe haven causing inflation to soar.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2016/12/economic-relativity-in-relationship-to.html
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Paul Daley Jan 2, 2017

Rogoff and Reinhart used to say that the only ways out of a debt crisis involved inflation, defaults or financial repression, all geared towards reducing the outstanding value of the stock of debt. The same may be true when you're faced with an overwhelming flow of funds, and an unmanageable current account position. A little financial repression, particularly in the form of higher costs for financial operations, can help defuse an otherwise explosive external account position. The FED is already moving in that direction in the interest of financial market stability, but a little more attention to the nation's external balance as it reels in financial market operations could do a lot of good.
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Jeremiah Hartnett Jan 1, 2017

Let the markets do the job. Interventions are what got us to where we sit now.Distortions in markets caused by manipulative behavior on the part of CB's and Treasuries hamstring business people. They will hesitate to invest if they think the prices available in the markets are temporary and not real. A countries currency value is determined by relative economic performance not interest rate differentials. It is a widely held misunderstanding among market participants and academics
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Walter Gingery Dec 31, 2016

Clearly, the US is no longer willing or, indeed, able to serve as the world's economic fly-wheel. The political cost of exporting jobs has the elite running scared.

But nor is any other country or group of countries willing to accept the burden of being the world's demand sink.

It would seem, therefore, that we're in for a period of everyone-for-himself, zero-sum, race to the bottom trade policies, reminiscent of the 1920's and 30's.
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Barry McHugh Dec 30, 2016

China isn't merely seeking to maintain the status quo as the tenet of this article suggests is our prime aim. China understands that without investment in the African continent that there will be scant global growth as while the bulk of population growth will come from African continent, they are too poor to make a difference. See http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/5-myths-about-chinese-investment-in-africa/
My point is that China is seemingly taking a long term perspective on where the world needs to be in terms of growth whereas the help-US-sort-short-term-issues-on-currency. From my country in Oceania we have also seen China's robust response to its climate accord where it took action on poor quality coal use entirely smashed by the media as a policy mistake bringing short term inflation whereas it's again trying to balance the worlds short term needs with the need for a robust long term policy profile. Yay China for shoring up future growth prospects.
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Paul Daley Dec 30, 2016

Reinhart stops short of the interesting question: how do you intervene, if you do want to intervene? With tariffs? taxes on capital? lower interest rates? Reagan had better partners than Trump and it took him four years to find an effective option. How long will it take Trump to sort out his options, if he even bothers to try to think them through?
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هل تتسبب قوة الدولار في إشعال شرارة التدخل في عام 2017؟

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