Janet Yellen Bao Dandan/ZumaPress

El dólar se incorpora a las guerras de divisas

NUEVA YORK – En un mundo en el que la demanda interna de muchas economías avanzadas y mercados en ascenso es débil, las autoridades han sentido la tentación de impulsar el crecimiento económico y el empleo inclinándose por el crecimiento propiciado por las exportaciones. Para ello, hace falta una divisa débil y políticas monetarias ortodoxas y heterodoxas que provoquen la necesaria depreciación.

Desde el comienzo de este año, más de veinte bancos centrales de todo el mundo han relajado la política monetaria, siguiendo el ejemplo del Banco Central Europeo y del Banco del Japón. En la zona del euro, los países de la periferia necesitaban la debilidad de la divisa para reducir sus décifits exteriores y hacer arrancar el crecimiento, pero la debilidad del euro desencadenada por la relajación cuantitativa ha aumentado aún más el superávit por cuenta corriente de Alemania, que ya ascendía a un enorme ocho por ciento del PIB el año pasado. Como los superávits exteriores están aumentando también en otros países del núcleo de la zona del euro, el desequilibrio general de la unión monetaria es grande y va en aumento.

En el Japón, la relajación cuantitativa fue el primer “arco" de la “Abenomía”, el programa de reformas del Primer Ministro, Shinzo Abe. Su lanzamiento ha debilitado profundamente el yen y ahora está empezando a aumentar los superávits comerciales.

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