Janet Yellen Bao Dandan/ZumaPress

Dolar se připojuje k měnovým válkám

NEW YORK – Ve světě slabé domácí poptávky jsou tvůrci politik v mnoha vyspělých ekonomikách i na rozvíjejících se trzích v pokušení posílit hospodářský růst a zaměstnanost příklonem k exportem taženému růstu. Ten vyžaduje slabou měnu, a tedy konvenční a nekonvenční měnové politiky, které vyvolají nezbytnou devalvaci.

Od začátku roku víc než 20 centrálních bank po celém světě uvolnilo měnovou politiku, po vzoru Evropské centrální banky a japonské centrální banky. Země na periferii eurozóny potřebovaly oslabení měny, aby snížily své externí schodky a nastartovaly růst. Jenže oslabení eura vyvolané kvantitativním uvolňováním dále upevnilo přebytek obchodní bilance v Německu; loni už dosáhl ohromujících 8 % HDP. Jelikož externí přebytky narůstají i v dalších zemích jádra eurozóny, celková nevyváženost měnové unie je značná a stále bobtná.

V Japonsku bylo kvantitativní uvolňování prvním „šípem“ abenomiky, reformního programu premiéra Šinzó Abeho. Jeho vypuštění strmě oslabilo jen a teď vede ke stoupajícím obchodním přebytkům.

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