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الإثارة والدولار

Aug 12, 2020 Barry Eichengreen

بيركلي- لقد كانت العناوين الرئيسية مؤخرا تصرخ بان الدولار في حالة هبوط حر ! الدولار العالمي محكوم عليه بالفشل !ولكن في واقع الامر فإن مثل تلك العناوين المثيرة هي "مثيرة للغاية " اذا اردنا الاقتباس من خبيرة العملات الانسة بريزم في مسرحية اوسكار وايلد " أهمية ان تكون جادا".

ان هبوط الدولار في يوليو لأدنى مستوى له منذ عامين امام اليورو كان الدافع المباشر لتلك القصص وفي واقع الأمر فإن الانخفاض الأخير للدولار هو واحد ضمن سلسلة من التقلبات التي يمكن تفسيرها بسهولة فعندما أصبحت جائحة كوفيد-19 عالمية في مارس تعززت قوة الدولار بسبب تدفقات الملاذ الآمن لسندات الخزانة الأمريكية كما يحصل عادة في بداية كل أزمة وبحلول مايو تمكن الإحتياطي الفيدرالي والذي يتصرف كملاذ أخير عندما يتعلق بالإقراض على مستوى العالم من استيعاب هذا الاقبال المجنون على الدولار وذلك من خلال ضخ سيولة ضخمة في الأسواق المالية مما أدى الى تخلي الدولار عن مكاسبه المبكرة.

ان الانخفاض اللاحق لقيمة الدولار يعكس التوقعات المتغيرة للاقتصادات الامريكية والأوروبية ومع انتشار كوفيد-19 فإن التوقعات المستقبلية الامريكية تتدهور وعليه يتوقع المستثمرون ان يبقي الاحتياطي الفيدرالي على أسعار الفائدة منخفضة لفترة أطول وفي منطقة اليورو فإن الفيروس اصبح تحت السيطرة بشكل اكبر والبيانات من مسوحات مدراء المشتريات تشير الى اتجاه تصاعدي مفاجئ.

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Frans Verhagen Aug 13, 2020

How can neoliberal economists continue to believe in Margaret Thatcher’s TINA of “There is no alternative” to the present unjust, unsustainable, and therefore, unstable international monetary system and think that the monetary “status-quo is tolerable” and that interest rates tolerably predict the exchange rate of a nation or group of nations?

Even before the coronavirus-19 pandemic the international monetary system was unjust, unsustainable, and, therefore, unstable and was a major cause of the economic concentration of wealth and income within and between countries. The pandemic has only shown us how bad economic inequality is. There a many good reasons that the clamor for a New Social Contract is increasing but neoliberal economists are still proposing little reforms for the IMF which itself is part of the problem of the global disastrous economic mess.
As a sustainability sociologist with backgrounds in divinity and international affairs, I am suggesting a Tierra alternative to TINA. It consists of a just and sustainable global governance system that addresses not only the pandemic but especially the looming climate catastrophe in their economic, social and ecological dimensions. It rests on the two pillars of a money-based financial system of sovereign money and public banking AND a decarbonization-based international monetary system. The ethical, commercial, intellectual, ecological and strategic dimensions of this global governance system was initially presented in Verhagen 2012"The Tierra Solution: Resolving the Climate Crisis through Monetary Transformation" (www.timun.net) and is being update in its sequel “"PRIME TIME for the Planet: A pathway to a just and sustainable global governance system for the 21st century and beyond."

The bancor and Special Drawing Rights may be good intermediate reforms, but what is needed is a just and sustainable global governance system with a balance of payments that accounts for both financial and ecological debts and credits and federated global central bank that solely creates money or issues currency, such as the Tierra and administers the monetary system with its decarbonization standard such as a specific tonnage of CO2e per person.
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Mirek Fatyga Aug 13, 2020

it generally works like this:

one day, All Important People including Extremely Important People with a Ton of Money say: "Ninja loans, bring them on. Real estate never goes down. MAGA!" And then, the next day, the same people say, OMG we are going to lose our shirts and, maybe even, our backs! The rest becomes history.

The same with US$. Hanging on every little movement up or down, pointless, though entertaining. Gambling on the timing, suit yourself if you have money to burn.

But it is coming. Logic tells you that there is only so much picture of abject chaos and proof after proof of fundamental ungovernability that the world can take. Not to mention sheer nastiness.
- Aug 14, 2020
  
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Marc Laventurier Aug 12, 2020

For much more (mostly random) context and tangentially related conclusions (from an active macro managers' POV), watch 'The Dawn of Chaos: Central Banks and the Dollar' w/ Hugh Hendry and Luke Gromen. See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lt4PhkKTkik About an hour long, a suggestion for a 'Bancor-for-Oil' mentioned at around minute 38. Fun summer programming from St. Barts - especially enjoyed hearing Luke disabuse Hugh of his typically ridiculous notion that the US willingly sacrificed its' labor class for the good of humanity. And please don't blame Hughs' haircut - mine's five times longer...
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