提高为善效率

哥本哈根——决策者可以编造出种种理由拒绝投资全球援助和发展计划。三周前,我加入了由五名诺贝尔奖得主和三位著名经济学家组成的联合小组,通过提供有关投资在哪里效率最高的信息,彻底撕下了一个最受决策者青睐借口的伪装面具。

关于研究的每一个问题,我们都把成本收益作为研究的重点。为了指导我们的思考,我们问自己:如果额外多出750亿美元可以进行投资,投在哪里能够取得最好的效果?我们平等地看待任何一项挑战。媒体对于有些问题的大肆渲染不在我们的考虑之列。

排在名单最后的是世界可能进行的效率最低的投资,而效率最高的投资项目则排在名单的最前面。我们把投资效率的最后一位(参见排名清单)给了通过降低二氧化碳排放来应对气候变化的项目。这一结果部分来自政府间气候变化委员会的一位著名作者——该委员会去年集体获得了诺贝尔和平奖的殊荣——他们强调在未来100年内将8000亿美元巨款全部投资于减少二氧化碳排放截止到本世纪末只能让不可逆转的温度升高降低区区0.2摄氏度。即使将气候变暖可能造成的最重要的环境损害考虑进去,我们也肯定会在这项投资中赔钱,投资回报只能达到6850亿美元。

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