军事干涉是否真的会起作用?

牛津——因为在后冲突国家开展维和行动复杂而且代价昂贵,还因为伊拉克战争已经破坏了富裕国家对维和行动的成功前景所抱有的信心,所以冷静地看待军事干涉所起的作用现在正恰逢其时。针对符合《哥本哈根共识》规定的维和项目所进行的全新研究有史以来首次包含了针对联合国维和行动的成本效益分析,分析得出了如下结论,那就是军事力量是减少世界各地流血惨剧的一种重要工具。

伊拉克行动容易使人们对此类维和行动的有效性产生误解。与绝大多数冲突不同的是,一场国际战争点燃了伊拉克的内战之火。另外一种情况相比之下更具典型性:那就是在一个被激烈种族分歧所累的低收入、低增长的小国国土上所产生出来的政治暴力。

如何面对那些有结构性危险的国家显然是我们这代人所面临的最迫切的安全挑战。我们完全有理由认为麻烦会逐渐升级。半数以上的内战都源自冲突结束后的故态复萌,而不久前谈妥的和平协议也让许多国家仍然处于不稳定状态。商品繁荣和脆弱国家矿产资源的发现已经播下了冲突的种子,而民主在低收入国家的扩张——也许这一点令人意想不到——也扩大了在统计学意义上爆发政治暴力的概率。

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