¿El crecimiento tiene futuro?

MILÁN – ¿Qué podemos esperar a medida que la economía mundial emerge de su crisis más seria en casi un siglo? La respuesta rápida es un "nuevo normal", con un crecimiento más lento, un sistema financiero medular con menos riesgo y más estable y una serie de desafíos adicionales (energía, clima y desequilibrios demográficos, para nombrar sólo algunos) con horizontes temporales diversos que pondrán a prueba nuestra capacidad colectiva para mejorar la gestión y el control de la economía global. 

Un menor crecimiento es la mejor predicción para el mediano plazo. Parece muy probable, pero en realidad nadie lo sabe. La crisis financiera, que se transformó rápidamente en un colapso económico global, resultó no sólo de la imposibilidad de reaccionar ante una inestabilidad, un riesgo y un desequilibrio crecientes, sino también de una incapacidad generalizada previa a la crisis de "ver" el creciente riesgo sistémico.

Estas características definitorias condicionarán las respuestas y los resultados en los próximos años. Existen fuerzas compensatorias. Los países de alto crecimiento (China e India) son grandes y se están volviendo más grandes en relación al resto. Eso por sí solo tenderá a elevar el crecimiento global comparado con el mundo donde los países industriales, y Estados Unidos en particular, eran el motor del crecimiento.

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