Hat das Wachstum eine Zukunft?

MAILAND – Was können wir erwarten, wenn die Weltwirtschaft sich nun von einem ihrer heftigsten Abschwünge in nahezu einem Jahrhundert erholt? Die kurze Antwort lautet: einen „neuen Normalpegel“ mit langsamerem Wachstum, ein im Kern risikoärmeres und stabileres Finanzsystem und mehrere zusätzliche Herausforderungen (u. a. Energie- und Klimaprobleme sowie demografische Ungleichgewichte, um nur einige wenige zu nennen) mit unterschiedlichen Zeithorizonten, die unsere kollektive Fähigkeit, die Führung und Regulierung der globalen Wirtschaft zu verbessern, auf die Probe stellen werden.

Geringeres Wachstum ist mittelfristig die beste Annahme. Es erscheint am wahrscheinlichsten, doch weiß es niemand wirklich. Die Finanzkrise, die sich rasch in einen globalen Konjunkturrückgang verwandelte, resultierte nicht nur aus dem Versäumnis, auf wachsende Instabilität, Risiken und Ungleichgewichte zu reagieren, sondern auch aus einer weit verbreiteten Unfähigkeit vor der Krise, das zunehmende systemische Risiko zu „sehen“.

Diese bestimmenden Merkmale werden die Reaktionen und die Ergebnisse in den kommenden Jahren bedingen. Dabei sind entgegengesetzte Kräfte am Werk. Die Länder mit hohem Wachstum (China und Indien) sind groß und werden im Verhältnis zu den anderen größer. Allein das wird tendenziell dazu führen, das globale Wachstum zu erhöhen – verglichen mit der Welt, in der die Industrieländer und vor allem die USA der Wachstumsmotor waren.

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