增长能有未来么?

米兰——当全球正在走出近一百年来最严重的经济危机之时,我们能有什么期待么?简单的回答就是“全新的模式”,也就是放缓增长步伐,建立一个少一点风险,多一点稳定的金融系统,应对不同时期的一些挑战(例如能源,气候和地球人口分布的不平衡性等),这将考验我们是否有能力管理和监控世界的经济。

从中期来看,较低的增长率是很有可能的一个走向。虽然可能性很大,但没有人真正知道现实的发展是如何。此次金融危机来势汹汹,不仅让我们看到了全球经济增长的不稳定性,风险和不平衡性;也告诉我们,在危机发生之前,没能“预见”到不断增加的系统性风险的存在。

这些负面的影响会在接下来的几年里体现出来。一些快速增长的国家,例如中国和印度,对其他国家的影响要大一些。他们对世界经济回暖的贡献要大于一些发达国家。但美国无疑还是全球经济回暖的龙头。

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