欧元区可以走韩国之路吗?

华盛顿——至少从表面上看,欧元区当前状况与韩国在1997年崩盘时截然不同。两者都是严重的经济危机,但欧元区的问题来自政府债务水平高企,而韩国的问题来自大规模资本外逃和货币崩溃,且债务基本上全部来自公司部门。

尽管如此,欧元区还是可以从韩国身上学到经验,后者当年以任何人都没想到的速度走出了危机,实现了明智的改革和快速复苏。韩国迅速扭转局势的关键在于韩元的大幅贬值。欧元贬值似乎也是欧元区扭转局势的可行之道。

不同的危机各有各的不同,但韩国危机与20世纪90年代的其他新兴市场危机有着诸多相似之处。“财阀”——即政治上紧密联系的大型公司集团——通过低成本债务迅速扩张。外部股东对财阀内部的权势人物无法产生任何影响,债权人放心地把钱借给财阀,因为他们认定大财阀对政府而言非常重要,政府不会坐视它们倒闭。

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