¿Necesita Egipto un faraón?

NUEVA YORK -- Mientras la revolución de Egipto pende en la balanza, ¿qué factores son los que con más probabilidad determinarán su desenlace? Aunque todos los ojos parecen puestos en el ejército, para ver cómo se pronunciará, se pasan por alto otras cuestiones decisivas.

Naturalmente, lo que haga el ejército es enormemente importante. Las divisiones en un régimen autoritario apoyado por el ejército pueden crear desconexiones entre los intereses temporales del pequeño grupo más próximo al “ejército como gobierno” y el interés a largo plazo del “ejército como institución”, que debe ser una parte respetada del Estado y la nación.

La temprana declaración del ejército egipcio, al principio de las protestas, de que sus soldados no dispararían contra quienes protestaban contra Mubarak fue una clásica actitud de “ejército como institución” y útil en sí misma para una transición democrática. En cambio, la decisión del ejército de permitir a los leales a Mubarak –algunos a lomo de camellos o caballos– cargar en la plaza Tahrir de El Cairo y atacar a miles de manifestantes antigubernamentales fue una clásica actitud de “gobierno militar”.

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