Нужен ли Египту фараон?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Пока будущее египетской революции висит на волоске, какие факторы, скорее всего, определят исход? В то время как все взоры устремлены на армию в ожидании увидеть, чью сторону она примет, другие важные вопросы остаются невыясненными.

Конечно, то, что делает армия, чрезвычайно важно. Раскол в поддерживаемом армией авторитарном режиме может создать глубокое расхождение между интересами маленькой группы, наиболее близкой к “военным как к правительству”, и долгосрочными интересами “военных как института”, который должен быть уважаемой частью государства и нации.

Заявления египетской армии в начале протеста о том, что ее солдаты не будут стрелять в протестующих против Мубарака, были классическими действиями “военных как института” и полезными сами по себе для перехода к демократии. И наоборот, решение армии позволить сторонникам Мубарака – некоторым верхом на верблюдах и конях – ворваться на площадь Тахрир и атаковать тысячи антиправительственных демонстрантов, было классическим движением “военных как правительства”.

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