Braucht Ägypten einen Pharao?

NEW YORK: Ägyptens Revolution hängt in der Schwebe, und es stellt sich die Frage, welche Faktoren ihr Ergebnis am ehesten bestimmen werden. Während alle Augen auf die Armee gerichtet zu sein scheinen – mit Blick darauf, welchen Weg diese wohl einschlagen wird – werden andere wichtige Fragen übersehen.

Natürlich ist, was die Armee tut, enorm wichtig. Spaltungen in einem vom Militär gestützten autoritären Regime können Diskrepanzen zwischen dem temporären Interesse jener kleinen Gruppe, die dem „Militär als Regierung“ am nächsten steht, und dem langfristigen Interesse des „Militärs als Institution“ – nämlich ein angesehener Teil des Staates und der Nation zu sein – hervorrufen.

Die Erklärung der ägyptischen Armee zu Beginn der Proteste, ihre Soldaten würden nicht auf gegen Mubarak protestierende Demonstranten schießen, war ein klassischer Schritt des „Militärs als Institution“ und an sich schon für einen demokratischen Wandel nützlich. Dagegen war die Entscheidung der Armee, es Mubarak-Loyalisten – von denen einige Kamele oder Pferde ritten – zu gestatten, auf den Kairoer Tahrir-Platz zu stürmen und die dort zu Tausenden demonstrierenden Regierungsgegner anzugreifen, ein klassischer Schritt des „Militärs als Regierung“.

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