L’Égypte a-t-elle vraiment besoin d’un pharaon ?

NEW YORK – Quels sont les facteurs les plus à même de déterminer l’issue, encore incertaine, de la révolution en Égypte ? Alors que tous les yeux sont braqués sur l’armée, attendant de voir dans quel sens elle va pencher, d’autres points substantiels sont négligés.

Il est bien sûr extrêmement important de savoir ce que fera l’armée. Des clivages dans un régime autoritaire soutenu par l’armée peuvent créer des divergences entre les intérêts à court terme du petit groupe le plus proche de « l’armée comme gouvernement » et les intérêts à long terme de « l’armée comme institution », élément de l’État-nation devant être respecté.

La position prise par l’armée dans les premiers jours de la révolution – que les soldats ne tireraient pas sur les manifestants anti-Moubarak – était une approche classique de « l’armée comme institution », et en elle-même propice à une transition démocratique. Mais le fait que l’armée ait par la suite permis aux loyalistes de Moubarak de charger les manifestants sur la place Tahrir du Caire – parfois à dos de chameau ou à cheval – était au contraire un choix classique de « l’armée comme gouvernement ».

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