经济制裁能管用吗?

美国剑桥—新闻频频报道西方对俄罗斯、伊朗和古巴实施经济制裁,这是个盘点这些措施效果如何的良机。简单的回答是经济制裁通常只有十分有限的效果,即便它们可能是表现道德决心的重要方法。如果经济制裁要在二十一世纪扮演重要的治国角色,我们就必须认真想一想它们在过去表现如何。

加里·哈夫鲍尔(Gary Hufbauer)和杰弗里·肖特(Jeffrey Schott)在他们关于这一话题的经典著作中指出,经济制裁至少可以追溯到公元前432年希腊政治家和军事家伯里克利颁布了所谓的“迈加拉法令”(Megarian decree)以处理三名阿斯帕齐娅妇女被绑架事件。在现代,美国利用经济制裁追求各种目标,比如20世纪79年代卡特政府用它来推进人权、20世纪80年代用它来阻止核扩散等。

在冷战时期,美国也利用经济制裁动摇不友善国家,特别是拉丁美洲国家,尽管制裁效果往往并不怎么样,即使在政权最终发生更迭的国家也是如此。20世纪90年代初对塞尔维亚的经济制裁并未威慑其对波斯尼亚的入侵。显然,美国政府对国际象棋传奇鲍比·费舍尔(Bobby Fischer)的象征性惩罚(因为它在贝尔格莱德参加比赛,违反了制裁规定)并没有给被包围的萨拉热窝带来多少喘息。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/bsOOQYX/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now