央行有退出策略吗?

新加坡 – 全球金融危机一年了,几大央行在各自国家的的私有金融机构的摇摇欲坠的情况下处于十分危险的境地。迄今为止,靠注入以纳税人来担保的短期信贷来维持银行系统的策略还是有道理的。但是,最后,央行还是要脱身出来。不然,它们在资产负债表上巨大信贷亏损将使它们自己最终也需要精心呵护。

那种认为世界几个最大的经济体只是面临短期恐慌的观点,现在看上去越来越站不住脚了。相反,正在变得明显的是,在暴利并大规模发展后,金融业现在需要合并调整并去芜存菁。弱小银行应允许其倒闭或被兼并(普通客户的存款由政府保险基金偿还),这样健康强大的银行就能以新的活力出现。

如果这是对“金融危机”的正确诊断,那么对健康和正常的活力的阻拦,将会使问题越拖越久并不断恶化。对必要的调整开红灯,正在使信贷市场更为疲软而不是使其走强。

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