Dean Rohrer

Divididos perdemos

LONDRES – La política derrotó a la economía sensata en los Estados Unidos este verano cuando el Congreso y el presidente Barack Obama no pudieron llegar a un acuerdo en lo referente a los impuestos, prestaciones, déficits y estímulos para la inversión. Los dirigentes europeos también estuvieron paralizados –descartaron rescates y devaluaciones, así como déficits y estímulos. Además, al tener verdaderas tasas de interés negativas, imprimir dinero, forzar un aumento de la liquidez y subsidiar a los bancos comerciales, los banqueros centrales en todos lados – hace poco, el presidente de la Reserva Federal estadounidense, Ben Bernanke- perecen haber llegado a la conclusión de que ellos también llegaron al límite de lo que pueden hacer.

Como resultado, pocas personas dudan ahora que el mundo se está dirigiendo sin timón ni guía hacia una segunda desaceleración. El debate previo al verano sobre si nos enfrentamos  a una “nueva normalidad” de crecimiento más lento ya se ha resuelto: nada ahora parece normal.  Arreglar las cosas a medias ya no funciona. Sin poder concluir un acuerdo comercial global o uno para el cambio climático, un pacto de crecimiento, o cambios en el régimen financiero, es probable que el mundo caiga en un nuevo proteccionismo de devaluación competitiva, guerras de divisas, restricciones comerciales y controles de capital.

Sin embargo, no es tiempo de derrotismos. Los países que claman haber llegado al límite de lo que pueden hacer realmente significa que llegaron al límite de lo que pueden hacer por su cuenta. El camino hacia el crecimiento sostenido y el empleo no se encuentra en la aplicación de una ráfaga de iniciativas nacionales aisladas, sino mediante la coordinación de políticas globales.

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