Dean Rohrer

Divisi rischiamo la caduta

LONDRA – Quest’estate la politica ha giocato tutte le sue carte con l’economia americana, quando il Congresso e il presidente Barack Obama non riuscivano a trovare un accordo su tasse, diritti all’assistenza sociale, deficit o incentivi per gli investimenti. Anche i leader europei erano paralizzati, in preda a default e svalutazioni, deficit e stimoli. Dopo aver tentato con i tassi di interesse negativi, stampato moneta, investito in liquidità e sovvenzionato le banche commerciali, anche i banchieri centrali di tutto il mondo, tra cui recentemente il presidente della Federal Reserve americana Ben Bernanke, sembrano essere giunti alla conclusione di aver fatto tutto il possibile e di essere giunti al limite.

Di conseguenza, alcuni temono che il mondo stia andando alla deriva, senza guida e senza leader, e stia puntando dritto verso una seconda stagnazione. Il dibattito scoppiato prima dell’estate sulla possibilità o meno che il mondo abbia attraversato la cosiddetta fase di “new normal” (ossia uno scenario post-crisi in cui la crescita è più lenta del previsto) è stato risolto: niente sembra normale. Cercare di cavarsela alla meno peggio non è bastato. Incapace di concludere un accordo sul commercio globale, un accordo sui cambiamenti climatici e un patto sulla crescita o di apportare modifiche al regime finanziario, il mondo rischia di piombare in una nuova fase di protezionismo, fatta di svalutazioni competitive, guerre valutarie, restrizioni commerciali e controlli sui capitali.

Ma non è il momento di essere disfattisti. I Paesi che sostengono di aver già fatto tutto il possibile in realtà hanno solo dato il massimo a livello di singolo Paese. La strada verso una crescita sostenuta e l’occupazione non si raggiunge attraverso un turbinio di singole iniziative nazionali, bensì con un coordinamento delle politiche globali.

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