Dean Rohrer

Musíme si pomáhat

LONDÝN – Když se letos v létě Kongres USA a prezident Barack Obama nemohli shodnout na daních, dávkách, deficitech a investiční stimulaci, ve Spojených státech nad soudnou ekonomií trumfovala politika. Také evropští lídři byli paralyzováni – když za vyloučené prohlásili jak úpadky a devalvace, tak schodky a stimulace. A poté, co centrální bankéři všude na světě připustili negativní reálné úrokové míry, tiskli peníze, hnojili likviditou a dotovali komerční banky, už i oni – naposledy předseda amerického Fedu Ben Bernanke – podle všeho došli k závěru, že vyčerpali své možnosti.

Jen málokdo dnes tudíž pochybuje, že svět sklouzává, bez kormidelníka a bez vůdce, ke druhému poklesu. Debata vedená až do léta nad tím, jestli nadešel „nový normál“ pomalejšího růstu, už je uzavřena: normálně nevypadá vůbec nic. Snaha překlepat to zkrachovala. Svět neschopný dojednat globální obchodní dohodu, klimatickou smlouvu, pakt růstu ani změny ve finančním režimu se pravděpodobně pohrouží do nového protekcionismu konkurenční devalvace, měnových válek, obchodních omezení a regulace kapitálu.

Na defétismus není vhodná doba. Země, které tvrdí, že už došly na hranice toho, co mohou udělat, říkají vlastně, že došly na hranice toho, co mohou udělat samy. Cesta k setrvalému růstu a zaměstnanosti nevede přes příval jednorázových národních iniciativ, ale spíš přes globální koordinaci politik.

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