Dean Rohrer

离则死,合则生

发自伦敦——今夏美国国内的政治需要压倒了经济理性,国会与总统奥巴马在税收、授权,赤字以及刺激方案上争持不下。欧洲各国领导人也左右为难:一方面排除了违约和贬值的可能性,另外一方面又不愿推行赤字和刺激计划。而通过实施实质负利率,印钞,注入流动性并补贴各商业银行,世界各地的中央银行管理者们(最近是美联储主席伯南克)似乎都认定自己已经尽力了。

于是,只有很少一部分人怀疑世界正在失控状态下滑向第二次探底。夏天来临之前那场关于我们是否面对一个低增长“新常态”的问题已经不复存在,因为已经没有任何东西能维持常态了。希望再挺一挺来蒙混过关的策略已经失效。由于无法在全球贸易协定,气候变化条约,增长协议或者经济体制改革等方面达成一致,世界很可能会陷入一个争相贬值、货币战争,贸易限制以及资本管制的新保护主义格局之中。

但现在还没到承认失败的时候。那些声称已经用尽一切手段的国家其实只是穷尽了本国能使用的路数。而实现持续增长和就业的策略并不能依靠某个国家的一次性计划,而是要通过全球政策协调来达成。

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