Выход из капкана бедности

Безусловно, рост населения в развитых странах практически остановился. Средний уровень рождаемости в странах Европы и Северной Америки, например, упал в среднем до 1,5 - 3 на одну женщину. Для сравнения в самых бедных странах мира, таких как Сомали, Йемен и Уганда - намного выше, достигая 7 детей на одну женщину. Должны ли страны ограничить рождаемость, если они хотят накапливать больше богатства?

Все имеющиеся в наличии исторические и современные данные говорят о том, что это так. Трансформация богатых стран от хозяйств лишь покрывающего основные потребности в сторону значительного экономического роста произошла на основе глубокого демографического изменения, произошедшего 20 веке в Азии и в конце 19 века в Западной Европе - где уровень рождаемости значительно снизился. В последние два десятилетия подобное значительное снижение рождаемости произошло и в бедных странах, где появились первые признаки существенного экономического роста.

Например, в Египте за последние 15 лет рождаемость упала с 4.8 до 2.9 детей на одну женщину. За последнее десятилетие уровень дохода на душу населения в Египте вырос на 2,6 %. В тот же самый период в Тунисе уровень рождаемости упал на 50% и приблизился к европейскому уровню 2 ребенка на одну женщину, в то время как уровень дохода вырос на 3%. В Ботсване невероятный 13% рост дохода на душу населения за последние десять лет в сопровождался падением рождаемости с шести до менее четырех детей на одну женщину.

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