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La gestión de la era de la perturbación

NUEVA YORK – Las predicciones audaces basadas en la intuición raras veces son una buena idea. Según la famosa afirmación de Margaret Thatcher cuando era Secretaria de Educación en 1973, el Reino Unido no tendría una Primera Ministra durante su vida. El Presidente de IBM, Thomas J. Watson, declaró en 1943 que “había mercado mundial tal vez para cinco computadoras” y, cuando aparecieron las películas sonoras en 1927, Harry Warner, de Warner Brothers, preguntó: “¿Quién demonios quiere oír hablar a los actores?”

En una época en la que cuatro fuerzas poderosas están perturbando la economía mundial y poniendo patas arriba la mayoría de las cosas que damos por descontadas, es más probable aún que semejantes pronunciamientos sobre el futuro, debidos a intuiciones basadas en el pasado, estén equivocados. Cada una de esas cuatro “grandes perturbaciones" es transformadora por sí sola y todas ellas están amplificando los efectos de las otras y produciendo cambios fundamentales e imprevisibles en una escala que el mundo no había visto nunca... y que probablemente demostrarán que nuestras intuiciones están equivocadas.

La primera gran perturbación es el paso de la actividad económica a ciudades de los mercados en ascenso. En época tan reciente como el año 2000, el 95 por ciento de las empresas de la lista Riqueza Mundial 500 tenían su sede en economías desarrolladas. En 2025, casi la mitad de las empresas de Riqueza Mundial 500 tendrán su base en economías en ascenso y las correspondientes a China serán más que las de Estados Unidos o Europa.

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