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Совладание с эпохой переломов

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Смелые прогнозы, основанные на интуиции, редко бывают хорошей идеей. Маргарет Тэтчер, в 1973 году, будучи министром образования утверждала, что вряд ли на ее веку Соединенное Королевство, будет иметь женщину премьер-министра. Президент IBM, Томас Уотсон, в 1943 году заявил “я думаю, что на мировом рынке можно будет продать штук пять компьютеров.” И, когда в 1927 году дебютировали звуковые фильмы, Гарри Уорнер Warner Brothers спросил, “Кто, черт возьми, захочет слушать разговоры актеров?”

В то время, когда четыре мощные силы разрушают глобальную экономику, опровергая большинство наших предположений, такие заявления относительно будущего, основанные на интуициях, опирающихся на прошлое, вероятнее всего, будут неверными. Каждый из этих четырех “великих переломов” является трансформационным сам по себе, и все они усиливают эффекты друг друга, производя фундаментальные и непредсказуемые изменения в масштабах, которых мир еще никогда не видел – и докажут, что наши интуиции ошибочны.

Первым великим переломом является перемещение экономической деятельности в города развивающихся рынков. Совсем недавно, в 2000 году, 95% головных офисов Fortune Global 500 были расположены в развитых странах. К 2025 году, почти половина компаний Fortune Global 500 будет базироваться в странах с развивающейся экономикой, большей частью обоснованных в Китае, чем в Соединенных Штатах или Европе.

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