business man on bike tokyoform/ZumaPress

Vivere nell'età della rottura

NEW YORK – Una previsione audace basata sull'intuizione raramente si rivela azzeccata. Nel 1973, all'epoca in cui era ministro dell'istruzione, Margaret Thatcher disse che non avrebbe visto una donna diventare primo ministro britannico nel corso della sua vita. Nel 1943 il presidente dell'IBM Thomas J. Watson dichiarò che c'era "posto, sul mercato mondiale, per circa cinque computer". E quando, nel 1927, si aprì l'era del cinema sonoro, Harry Warner di Warner Brothers durante una riunione urlò "Ma chi diavolo credete che voglia sentire gli attori parlare?"

In un'epoca in cui quattro potenti forze stanno rivoluzionando l'economia globale, ribaltando gran parte delle nostre convinzioni, è ancora più probabile che simili affermazioni sul futuro, scaturite da intuizioni basate sul passato, si rivelino errate. Ognuno di questi quattro "grandi elementi di rottura" è di per sé trasformativo e amplifica gli effetti degli altri producendo mutamenti radicali e imprevedibili su una scala di dimensioni straordinarie, che dimostrerà che le nostre intuizioni sono sbagliate.         

Il primo elemento di rottura riguarda lo spostamento dell'attività economica verso le città dei mercati emergenti. Nel 2000, il 95% dei gruppi economici mondiali inclusi nella classifica Fortune Global 500 aveva sede in un paese sviluppato. Entro il 2025, quasi la metà delle imprese del Fortune Global 500 avrà sede in economie emergenti, e la Cina ne ospiterà più che gli Stati Uniti o l'Europa.

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