Given this summer's climate-driven disasters, one might think that the European political system would be devising comprehensive adaptation plans. But, despite some steps in the right direction, Europeans are only just waking up to the constitutional implications of a changing physical environment.
thinks a changing climate will force the European Union finally to embrace its political nature.
纽约——仅凭直觉就大胆预测很少会是好主意。1973年撒切尔夫人任教育大臣时,曾众所周知地断言英国在她有生之年不可能选出一位女首相。IBM总裁托马斯·J·沃森曾在1943年宣称“世界市场可能需要五台电脑。”而当有声电影于1927年首次亮相时,华纳兄弟影业的哈利·华纳质问,“究竟谁想听演员讲话?”
值此四大力量破坏全球经济、颠覆我们绝大多数假设时,像这样从过去经历中总结出来的直觉其错误的可能性甚至更大。所谓四大“破坏力”本身都是转型性力量,它们无时无刻不在放大着各自的效果,为世界带来前所未有且不可预知的根本性变化——这些变化会证明我们的直觉错误。
最重要的破坏性力是经济活动转移到新兴市场城市。就在2000年, 95%的全球财富500强企业总部还设在发达国家。而截止到2025年,近半数全球财富500强企业的总部将设在新兴经济体,其中设在中国的总部数量将超过美国和欧洲。
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