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管理被破坏的年代

纽约——仅凭直觉就大胆预测很少会是好主意。1973年撒切尔夫人任教育大臣时,曾众所周知地断言英国在她有生之年不可能选出一位女首相。IBM总裁托马斯·J·沃森曾在1943年宣称“世界市场可能需要五台电脑。”而当有声电影于1927年首次亮相时,华纳兄弟影业的哈利·华纳质问,“究竟谁想听演员讲话?”

值此四大力量破坏全球经济、颠覆我们绝大多数假设时,像这样从过去经历中总结出来的直觉其错误的可能性甚至更大。所谓四大“破坏力”本身都是转型性力量,它们无时无刻不在放大着各自的效果,为世界带来前所未有且不可预知的根本性变化——这些变化会证明我们的直觉错误。

最重要的破坏性力是经济活动转移到新兴市场城市。就在2000年, 95%的全球财富500强企业总部还设在发达国家。而截止到2025年,近半数全球财富500强企业的总部将设在新兴经济体,其中设在中国的总部数量将超过美国和欧洲。

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