El desarme de Medio Oriente

TEL AVIV – La súplica desesperada de Israel al mundo para que detenga lo que sus servicios de inteligencia describen como "la carrera de Irán hacia una bomba nuclear" no ha obtenido la respuesta positiva que aquel país esperaba. Ahora que el régimen de sanciones de las Naciones Unidas ha demostrado ser totalmente ineficaz y que la diplomacia internacional no ha logrado impedir que los iraníes desarrollen la tecnología necesaria para enriquecer uranio, Israel ha quedado arrinconado. Lo que supuestamente sería un gran esfuerzo internacional de mediación, se está deteriorando para convertirse en un enfrentamiento apocalíptico entre Israel e Irán.

Esta es una anomalía intrigante ya que, independientemente de la infame retórica antisemita del presidente iraní Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, las implicaciones del creciente poder de Irán van más allá del Estado judío. En efecto, afectan a todo el mundo árabe, particularmente a los vulnerables países del Golfo e incluso a Afganistán y Pakistán. Los Estados Unidos, como potencia importante en el Medio Oriente, y Europa, también tienen interés en detener la ola de proliferación nuclear que actualmente amenaza al Medio Oriente. Un Irán con capacidades nucleares daría inicio a una carrera descontrolada en toda la región para obtener la bomba.

El fracaso del sistema internacional para ocuparse eficazmente de la cuestión nuclear en el Medio Oriente se origina principalmente en la división entre Rusia y los Estados Unidos, a la que ha contribuido en gran medida la desatinada estrategia estadounidense. No es posible que Rusia quiera un Irán nuclear. Pero en su búsqueda de elementos contra lo que percibe como políticas estadounidenses hostiles, y como forma de negociar un marco de seguridad más aceptable con Occidente, los rusos se niegan a unirse al liderazgo de Estados Unidos en los esfuerzos internacionales para limitar las ambiciones nucleares de Irán.

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