Statue of Liberty in the sunset Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

Düstere Aussichten für Trumps Wirtschaftspolitik

NEW YORK – US-Präsident Donald Trump ist nun sechs Monate im Amt, und die Aussichten für die US-Wirtschaft und die von seiner Regierung verfolgte Wirtschaftspolitik lassen sich daher zuversichtlich einschätzen. Und wie bei Trumps Präsidentschaft im Allgemeinen finden sich hier jede Menge Paradoxa.

Am verwunderlichsten ist die Abkoppelung zwischen der Entwicklung an den Finanzmärkten und in der Realwirtschaft. Während die Aktienmärkte immer neue Höhen markieren, wuchs die US-Wirtschaft in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2017 um durchschnittlich bloße 2% – d. h. weniger als unter Präsident Barack Obama –, und es ist nicht zu erwarten, dass sie sich im weiteren Jahresverlauf deutlich besser entwickelt.

Die Anleger an den Aktienmärkten klammern sich weiter an die Hoffnung, dass Trump Maßnahmen durchdrücken kann, um das Wachstum anzukurbeln und die Unternehmensgewinne zu steigern. Zudem impliziert das langsame Lohnwachstum, dass die Inflation den Zielsatz der US-Notenbank (Fed) nicht erreicht, was bedeutet, dass die Fed die Zinsen langsamer normalisieren muss als erwartet.

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