Statue of Liberty in the sunset Gary Hershorn/Getty Images

توقعات قاتمة لسياسات ترمب الاقتصادية

نيويورك ــ الآن وقد مضت ستة أشهر على تولي الرئيس الأمريكي دونالد ترمب منصبه، نستطيع أن نقيم بثقة أكبر الاحتمالات المتوقعة للاقتصاد الأمريكي وعملية صنع السياسة الاقتصادية في ظل حكم إدارته. وكما هي الحال بالنسبة لكل ما يتعلق برئاسة ترمب عموما، نجد الأمر يفيض بالتناقضات.

يتمثل اللغز الأكبر في الانفصال بين أداء الأسواق المالية والواقع الملموس. فبينما تواصل الأسواق تسجيل ارتفاعات جديدة، لم يتجاوز متوسط معدل نمو الاقتصاد الأمريكي في النصف الأول من 2017 نسبة 2% ــ وهو نمو أبطأ من المعدل المحقق في عهد الرئيس باراك أوباما ــ كما لا يُتوقع أن يتحسن الأداء كثيرا في القسم المتبقي من العام.

لكن لا يزال المستثمرون في سوق الأوراق المالية متعلقين بأمل أن يدفع ترمب بسياسات لتحفيز النمو وزيادة أرباح الشركات. كما أن النمو المتباطئ في الأجور يشير إلى أن التضخم لا يصل المعدل المستهدف للاحتياطي الفدرالي الأمريكي، مما يعني أن البنك سيقوم بتطبيع أسعار الفائدة بوتيرة أبطأ من المتوقع.

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