“比利印度”论

圣地亚哥—四十年前,巴西经济学家埃德马尔·巴查(Edmar Bacha)将他的祖国称为“比利印度”:繁荣而现代的比利时和贫穷而落后的印度的合体。很多观察者看来,在上周日的总统选举中,巴西的印度部分支持现任总统迪尔马·罗塞夫,而比利时部分支持社会民主党人艾西奥·尼维斯(Aécio Neves)。印度比比利时大,所以罗塞夫赢了。

这正在迅速成为巴西选举的标准解说词。这次选举是近期最针锋相对、竞争最激烈的一次。不难看出为何如此。在巴西欠发达的东北部,迪尔马(在巴西,政客和足球明星一样,用首名称呼自己)取得压倒性胜利。

在相对富裕的南部(占巴西经济产出的70%),艾西奥大获全胜。如果把选民根据倚赖政府救济(在东北部比例很高)还是倚赖教育(在南部比例较高)分类,也会出现类似的结果。

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