men using computers Godong | getty images

数字全球化与发展中世界

伯克利—全球化正在进入新时代,其特征不仅包括跨境商品和资本流,也包括日益增加的数据和信息流。这一转变似乎有利于发达经济体,这些经济提的各个产业在运用数字技术于产品和经营方面位于前沿位置。发展中国家会远远落后吗?

几十年来,争夺全球低成本制造业务似乎是低收入国家在发展阶梯向上攀爬的不二法门。全球商品贸易占世界GDP之比从1985年的13.8%(2万亿美元)上升到2007年的26.6%(16万亿美元)。受来自发达经济体的需求和外包的驱动,新兴市场在蒸蒸日上的商品贸易中所占比重日益增加;到2014年,它们已经贡献了一大半的全球贸易流。

但是,自大衰退以来,全球商业贸易增长陷入了停滞,主要原因是世界主要经济体需求萎靡和大宗商品价格暴跌。但更深层次的结构变化也在起作用。许多公司正在简化和收缩供应链。对于很多商品,自动化意味着生产地和外包决定不再主要取决于劳动力成本。人才质量、基础设施、能源成本和上市速度在这类决定中的权重日益增加。在不久的将来,3D打印将进一步降低商品长途航运的需要。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Q03Th9U/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now