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数字全球化与发展中世界

伯克利—全球化正在进入新时代,其特征不仅包括跨境商品和资本流,也包括日益增加的数据和信息流。这一转变似乎有利于发达经济体,这些经济提的各个产业在运用数字技术于产品和经营方面位于前沿位置。发展中国家会远远落后吗?

几十年来,争夺全球低成本制造业务似乎是低收入国家在发展阶梯向上攀爬的不二法门。全球商品贸易占世界GDP之比从1985年的13.8%(2万亿美元)上升到2007年的26.6%(16万亿美元)。受来自发达经济体的需求和外包的驱动,新兴市场在蒸蒸日上的商品贸易中所占比重日益增加;到2014年,它们已经贡献了一大半的全球贸易流。

但是,自大衰退以来,全球商业贸易增长陷入了停滞,主要原因是世界主要经济体需求萎靡和大宗商品价格暴跌。但更深层次的结构变化也在起作用。许多公司正在简化和收缩供应链。对于很多商品,自动化意味着生产地和外包决定不再主要取决于劳动力成本。人才质量、基础设施、能源成本和上市速度在这类决定中的权重日益增加。在不久的将来,3D打印将进一步降低商品长途航运的需要。

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